Week 5: Probability and sampling
Key concepts
- Discrete and continuous variables
- Probability: \(\frac{Number of favorable cases}{Total number of cases}\)
- Normal probability distribution
- Z-scores, also reflect on mean and standard deviation
- Binominal probabilities
- Distribution tables
Before class
Required readings
- Meier, K. J., Brudney, J. L., & Bohte, J. (2014). The Normal Probability Distribution. In Applied Statistics for Public and Nonprofit Administration.
- Meier, K. J., Brudney, J. L., & Bohte, J. (2014). The Binomial Probability Distribution. In Applied Statistics for Public and Nonprofit Administration.
- Quick scan: Meier, K. J., Brudney, J. L., & Bohte, J. (2014). Some Special Probability Distributions. In Applied Statistics for Public and Nonprofit Administration.
Recommended readings
- Klein, G., & Dabney, A. (2013). The Cartoon Introduction to Statistics (First edition). Hill and Wang, a Division of Farrar, Straus and Giroux., Chapters 8
Video illustrations that are more accessible
You can find more videos to help you comprehend, here is a few.
The last banana: A thought experiment in probability
Binomial distributions | Probabilities of probabilities, part 1
Bayes theorem, the geometry of changing beliefs
In class
- Lecture on key concepts and frameworks (45 min).
- Group activity: Applying statistics (30 min)
- In class practice (1h):
- Paper practice
- In-class practice
- Assignment catch-up:
- Qualitative Group Project (15 min).
- Quantitative Test (15 min).