# Week 6: \*\ Probability and sampling

# Key concepts

- Discrete and continuous variables
- Z-scores, also reflect on mean and standard deviation
- Binominal probabilities:
- Independence, mutually exclusive and jointly exhaustive
- Combination: notation and calculation
- Remember: \(Probability Of An Event Happening = \frac{Number Of Ways It Can Happen}{Total Number of Outcomes}\)

- Distribution tables

# Before class

## Required readings

Primary reading material:

- Meier, K. J., Brudney, J. L., & Bohte, J. (2015).
*Applied Statistics for Public and Nonprofit Administration*(Ninth edition). Cengage Learning..**Read Chapters 7 and 8 in detail, quick scan Chapter 9.**

Briefly review the following readings to get familiar with the notation and calculation. If you find the calculation and notation are hard to comprehend, try to understand what they are about and what they try to achieve.

- Properties of probabilities and Bayes Rule - Summary
*Bruce Hansenâ€™s Probability and Statistics for Economists*. Retrieved August 25, 2021, from https://www.ssc.wisc.edu/Â bhansen/probability/, Chapter 1- Wonnacott, T. H., & Wonnacott, R. J. (1990).
*Introductory Statistics*(5th ed). Wiley., Chapters 3.1-3.6, 4.1-4.2, 5.1 & 5.3

## Recommended readings

- Bailey, M. A. (2016).
*Real Stats: Using Econometrics for Political Science and Public Policy*(1st edition). Oxford University Press. - Pluchino, A., Biondo, A. E., & Rapisarda, A. (2018). TALENT VERSUS LUCK: THE ROLE OF RANDOMNESS IN SUCCESS AND FAILURE.
*Advances in Complex Systems*,*21*(03n04), 1850014. https://doi.org/10.1142/S0219525918500145

## Video illustrations that are more accessible

You can find more videos to help you comprehend, here is a few.

### The last banana: A thought experiment in probability

### Binomial distributions | Probabilities of probabilities, part 1

### Bayes theorem, the geometry of changing beliefs

# In class

- Pre-lecture survey and announcements.
- Lecture on key concepts and frameworks (9:10-11am).
- Hands-on and assignment catch-up (11-12pm):
- Qualitative Test group work weekly update (15 min).
- Replication project weekly update (10 min).
- Quantitative Test hands-on practice (45 min).

# Empirical studies as examples

TBD.